You can't call yourself portable and weigh three kilos. No, when a tablet weighs 800 grams. Nor is it the solution that the kilo laptop exceeds a thousand euros. If it doesn't solve its weight/price problem, the tablet is a serious threat to the laptop's reign.
Spaniards will end the year buying 4,7 million computers, 35% less than in 2010. Of all these computers, 75% are portable, although if only private consumption is addressed (60% of the total), the laptop eats 85%. However, the emergence of tablets, even smartphones, seems to have stopped their growth.
"Cannibalization is between 10-inch screens, between netbooks, tablets and mobile phones," explains Alberto Ruano, general director of Toshiba Spain. "The laptop has no substitute for work. The tablet complements the laptop, but will never replace it." The laptop still does things that a tablet doesn't do or are inconvenient to do.
"The rise of tablets has greatly damaged sales of mini-laptops (netbooks), which years ago accounted for 30% of the computer market and now do not reach 15%," says Salvador Cayón, HP Marketing Director. "But the minis will still exist."
If in 2007 the laptops ate the PC thanks to the mini-notebooks, which Asus began by launching, now the hope of the sector in the face of the push of the tablets are the so-called ultralight or ultrabook (term registered by Intel).
"The year 2012 will be the year of the ultrabook, the mixture of tablet and computer," Ruano predicts. Indeed, these ultralights bring together the best of those two worlds: one kilo of weight, eight-hour battery life, instant start (tablets) and a physical keyboard and 13-inch screen (computer). For now, the price challenge remains pending. "To be successful they must cost less than 800 euros," says Ruano.
IHS iSupply estimates that ultrabook sales will not reach one million units this year, just 2% of total laptop sales. But next year, ultraslims will account for 13% of all laptop sales, 28% in 2013, and 38% by 2014.
"Ultralight computers have always existed," Cayón points out, "although they were focused on the professional sector, with prices above 2.000 euros. They barely accounted for 6% of sales."
Indeed, the ultrabook concept has been practiced by Apple for years with its line of MacBook Air computers, starting at 950 euros.
"It is still premature, both in terms of technology and prices, to predict the impact of ultraportables," says Cayón. There are barely half a dozen models on the market from the consortium created by Intel (which provides the chips), manufacturers Acer, Asus, Toshiba and Lenovo, plus the latest operating system from Microsoft.
The Ultrabook group has already announced discounts of 10% on its current prices. In mid-2012, Acer models will be available for around 800 euros and in 2013 for 500, according to Acer president Jim Wong.
Thanks to the ultrabook concept, the laptop will continue to be very much alive, according to IHS iSupply, which reveals that in 2015 324,9 million laptops will be sold worldwide compared to 220 million in 2011. Although the growth of the laptop market will slow down in the coming years due to the pressure of the tablets, this will continue to progress.
"Before the choice was fixed and/or portable. There were no other alternatives," explains Cayón. "Now there are tablets and even smartphones and I think that, in the end, the owners of these devices will want to have a powerful and fixed computer at home with an Internet connection, a television, good sound and the ability to play games. I think that The landline is resisting the crisis better than the laptop. The All in One range of computers is doing very well for us." Cayón does not hide an important business factor: today a desktop computer costs more than a laptop and leaves more margin. "Things have turned upside down."