2012 will be a good year for electronic consumption. But not in Spain, not in Western Europe, not even in the United States. The impressive growth of emerging countries (China, India and Latin America) covers the debacle of the - let's call them - shrinking countries. This is the summary given in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), organizer of the CES fair, and GfK, which is dedicated to monitoring 345.000 electronics stores in more than 90 countries.
For the first time in history, spending on electronics (from the television to the printer) will exceed one billion dollars in the world, exactly 1.038 according to GfK calculations for 2012.
The so-called emerging markets maintain the positive figures, as they did last year, as they grew by 17%, and central Europe by 18%. On the opposite side Western Europe (2%) and the United States (5%). If in 2011 global income increased by 8%, in this year it will not exceed 5%. Europe, Japan and the United States will have flat or negative growth. But year after year that division between developed and emerging is diluting. If in 2008, sales in the developed world accounted for 63%, in 2012 it will be 54%, and emerging countries jump from 37% to 46%. That is to say, in two years the tables will have turned. Emerging countries will consume more electronics than rich ones.
The differences in electronic consumption are not only geographical. Also sectoral. The "old technology" and by that we mean camcorders, printers, consoles, monitors...they lose income year after year to the benefit exclusively of the 2011st century device, the smartphone, the smart phone (although super-intelligent ones are already beginning to be announced here) . This year, smartphones will continue to lead growth again, along with tablets, but even these devices will grow at a slow pace. If in 59 they grew by 222% and 2012% respectively, in 55 the sale of tablets will grow by 22% and that of smartphones by 2012%. The phenomenon of tablets is very curious. Its impact has been such, so sudden and dazzling, that in 88 it deflated, although 26 million units will be sold. In the United States it will grow by 161%, it is as if all Americans had already bought their tablet. Not so in Latin America, where they will grow by 136%, in Central Europe (125%) or in China and India (XNUMX%).
Modest growth is announced for laptops (3%) and LCD TVs (2%).
The smartphone does have an unstoppable journey. If in 2007 it represented an 11% share of the entire sector, today they already have 36%. Also the differences in growth this year are by neighborhood. In Europe, only 16%, compared to 96% in Latin America or 121% in China and India. Unlike developed countries, the cheapest ones are sold in emerging countries. Models like the Samsung Galaxy Mini, the Nokia 5230 or the Sony Ericsson Experia, with prices below $275. In rich countries, the percentage spent on expensive ones (iPhone, Samsung Galaxy II) will continue to increase.
Laptop computers will also grow by 10%, thanks mainly to the push for ultrabooks and the economic boom in emerging regions. Western Europe and the United States will have negative growth. The tablet phenomenon has especially punished mini-laptops, whose main function was Internet connection and which cost around 300 euros. For three years, from 2007 to 2010, they outsold classic laptops. It's not like that.
Before so many figures, Shawn Dubranac, director of research at the CEA, reviewed the past and future of the industry. He started with a photo from 1967, showing black and white televisions. It was the first CES fair. Dubranac ended by saying that the coming future is also that of the television, connected to the Internet and in 3D. Even so, GfK figures say that sales of these devices will only grow by 1% (262 million units). Most types of televisions will lose share, except LCD, those prepared to connect to the Internet and 3D. But percentage figures are sometimes more spectacular than absolute figures. The reality is that last year they sold 8,9 million 3D televisions. This year about 20 million will be sold. If the television is the future, it will have to lower prices, but without a doubt that, in this technological world that flies, the television continues to star in a technology fair today just as it did almost half a century ago is a miracle. There is no other similar device, nor has the computer lasted as long. We will see the smartphone, but it surely will not be square or placed in the middle of a room for everyone to enjoy.