Intelligent communication networks, gesture and voice interfaces, augmented reality, cloud computing… These are some of the trends and technologies that aspire to reinvent the market, alter our way of social interaction and lead to pioneering business models. Some are already here and show their potential revolution. Others will develop almost imperceptibly over the next few years. Place your bets. Will they prevail? When and how fast? In which countries?
The analyst firm Gartner has put its hand in the fire, with a mixture of present, chance and evidence. Six key transformations will mark the future of the technology sector. In the opinion of Peter Sondergaard, global director of research at the consulting firm, the fundamental thing for any organization will be to "translate these keys into action and be the first to adapt to change."
The first key points to an evolution and a challenge: redefining the concept of talent and technological knowledge. In Spain, 25.000 computer scientists and engineers are urgently needed, according to the AETIC employers' association. In India, with 400.000 technical graduates a year, demand still does not match supply. Talent no longer equals qualifications. The so-called digital natives, generations under 24 years old, born between social networks and gadgets, They will be the future technological managers. Only companies creative in attracting and retaining employees will be able to hire the best people.
Context will be the second keyword. The Internet is increasingly intelligent: it knows who we are, where we are and what we need. But it still doesn't always offer the right answers. Furthermore, life will be mobile. In 2010, the installed base of Smartphones, with location services, it will reach 1.200 billion, surpassing the number of PCs. From isolated applications, such as geolocated searches, we will move on to a range of contextualized services, based on smart networks, advertising strategies and payment on demand. The battle to offer them will be fought on four fronts: Internet service providers (Google, Facebook, eBay...), operators (Telefónica, Vodafone...), (Microsoft, Adobe...) and equipment manufacturers (Cisco, Nokia...).
Let's add the global component, the third major trend. Will we ever get our mortgage from the Bank of China? Will Tata be the next General Motors with its 1.600 euro car? Emerging markets will be the protagonists. Technology will no longer serve local needs to give way to global services. Apple knows this very well: it will launch its iPhone 11G on July 3 in 22 countries simultaneously, reaching 70 by the end of the year. "In 2015, the geographical origin of technology will be irrelevant," says Partha Iyengar, vice president of Gartner. R&D, innovation, employees, processes... will be distributed among multiple countries.
With geographic diversity will come standardization. Virtual servers and data centers, currently slowly taking off, will generate additional models for the purchase, management and delivery of and services -basically online-. IBM, HP and Sun have focused on virtualization. Gartner goes further and continues to support the relevance of green technology. "It is not just a question of energy consumption. The push of public opinion and legislation are already forcing companies to take action," explains Sondergaard.
What will be the dividing line between success and failure? Innovation, the fifth piece. According to Gartner, only managers and companies with purely innovative DNA will survive. Some of the technological advances that will mutate the sector until 2012 have only just begun. The first, the cloud computing, the turn towards platforms websites imposed by Google, Salesforce and Amazon. It is already dragging down an entire industry, with Microsoft, IBM, SAP and HP reacting.
The second, user interfaces: digital paper, recognition of facial and voice gestures, virtual keyboards, integration of switches in clothing to control mobile devices... and, above all, the universalization of touch. Microsoft is pushing hard with its Surface and Multi-Touch technology, incorporating it into entertainment equipment. HP follows in its wake with Touch Smart IQ500, a touch screen computer. Position, light and temperature accelerometers will provide senses to any mechanism.
Other technologies, such as augmented reality and semantic applications, will aim to revolutionize the sector.
The five tendencies lead to the most powerful and uncertain: socialization. Social communities, virtual worlds and learning online They are becoming more relevant every day in the corporate field. From the network of computers, to the network of people; from mass technology to customizable technology; from control over content, to the explosion of information. "The combination of these factors has destabilized the balance of power between companies, consumers and suppliers," acknowledges Steve Prentice. What will be the sources of income in the social era? The answer, in 2012.
The majority are between 15 and 22 years old. They communicate virtually, but do not use e-mail, but SMS, video messaging online and social networks. For them, technology is not an improvement, it is the norm. They don't understand it, they use it. And, although they don't have money yet, they love to buy clothes, music and any extravagant accessories in virtual fantasies like The Sims 2. They are the digital natives and, according to Gartner, they will dominate the world in 2018.
"These generations have a new concept of culture and use of technology. They do not read books from beginning to end, they look at a set of sources online; its essence is based on validating concepts with colleagues, on sharing," explains Peter Sondergaard.
According to the Pew Internet Project, 55% of American fifteen-year-olds have posted their profile on the web site. The massive impact will occur when this generation enters the job market. The work will be mainly remote, the abnormal thing will be the fixed workforce; We will use a mix of platforms, from smartphones to multimedia players. Companies, citizens, we will all form a social network online. Job interviews will be virtual and candidates will be able to find out how satisfied employees are with their bosses in one click. Welcome to the future.
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